Unlikely Prospect of Bank of England Base Rate Cuts Amid Economic Challenges
The economic landscape in the UK has been marred by concerns over growth, inflation, and higher interest rates. The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has been vocal about the challenges the UK economy faces, asserting that interest rates are unlikely to be cut in the "foreseeable future." This stance is underlined by a complex web of economic factors, ranging from inflationary pressures to the potential decline in house prices and the need for the Bank to maintain its focus on primary objectives.
One of the primary reasons cited by Bailey for resisting interest rate cuts is the persistent issue of inflation. Despite a recent drop to 4.6% in the year to October, inflation remains more than double the Bank of England's 2% target. Bailey emphasized that further reduction would be "hard work," acknowledging the delicate balance required to control inflation without stifling economic growth. Lowering interest rates could potentially exacerbate inflationary pressures, making it a less viable option in the current economic climate.
The UK's economic challenges extend beyond inflation, with concerns about the country's growth prospects taking center stage. Bailey expressed his worry about the diminished potential for economic growth, stating that it is "lower than it has been in much of my working life." The government's forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), echoed these concerns, revising down its growth outlook for the next couple of years. With the UK not in recession but facing weak economic growth, the need to stimulate the economy becomes evident.
Despite the economic headwinds, Bailey remains firm in his commitment to tackling inflation and maintaining the current interest rates at 5.25%, which is a 15-year high. The governor is mindful of the impact on borrowers but emphasizes the necessity of bringing inflation down to the 2% target. This commitment to stability is further underscored by recent interest rate hikes implemented by the Bank as part of its strategy to address rising prices, particularly in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
An additional layer of complexity is introduced by external factors, such as the global economic landscape and geopolitical events, influencing the Bank's decision-making process. The economic uncertainties created by these external factors require a cautious approach to monetary policy. The governor's reluctance to entertain the idea of interest rate cuts reflects a commitment to maintaining stability amid a challenging economic environment.
Moreover, the recent House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee report highlighted the need for reforms to enhance the Bank's performance and accountability. While affirming the importance of the Bank's independence, the report suggested pruning the Bank's remit to ensure a focused approach on its primary objectives of tackling inflation and ensuring financial stability. This recommendation aligns with Bailey's emphasis on maintaining a clear focus on the core responsibilities of the Bank.
There are unique challenges faced by UK borrowers in the context of inflation, higher interest rates, and a potentially declining housing market, particularly for homeowners facing the expiration of fixed-rate mortgage deals. The prospect of declining house prices and the impact on property values adds another layer of complexity to the decision-making process for homeowners for the threat of negative equity putting a remortgage out of reach is a threat for many newer homeowners.
Understanding that the Bank will not likely cut the standard base interest rate is helpful to homeowners needing to make a decision as they near the end of their mortgage term. Those that had hoped for a return to the lender interest rate levels of 2021 and 2022 have received a clear message, which is the current base interest rate is not only going to stick for a while but also it is needed to tame stubborn inflation.
Those facing the expiration of their mortgage term can now make a more informed decision and look favorably on obtaining a remortgage to avoid a standard variable rate (SVR) and let go of holding out hope for rates to decline from their current levels. By choosing a remortgage, and securing a fixed rate, a homeowner could likely find savings as new deals are connected to lower interest rates in comparison to a SVR. In addition, by choosing a remortgage, choosing a fixed rate deal is possible, and while inflation reports have been more favorable, there are factors that could cause instability and not worrying about rate hikes could offer peace of mind.
Shopping for a remortgage is simple and quick to do online. Visiting the site of a remortgage broker could put numerous remortgage quotes from a variety of lenders into the hands of homeowners to review and compare. Quotes could also be gathered by going from website to website of remortgage lenders. Brokers might also offer exclusive deals not offered directly from lenders to borrowers. With a competitive lending market in place, and possibly a temporary one, homeowners should consider shopping for a remortgage opportunity sooner rather than later in confidence that rates of today could likely be the best rates for a while.