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Third Quarter Expected to Reveal End of Double Dip Recession and MPC Holds Interest Rate

Third Quarter Expected to Reveal End of Double Dip Recession and MPC Holds Interest Rate

As expected by economists the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) closed out their October meeting leaving the standard base interest rate steady.  The long standing rate of 0.5% will likely remain at that level throughout the year and possibly throughout 2013 according to experts.  There was a decision to leave the amount of quantitative easing (QE) at £375 billion with no increase.  However, there is a strong expectation of more QE next month with the last of the approved amount of £50 billion likely to be released.

The information on the growth of the economy for the third quarter, which is months July, August and September, will be made available by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in late October.  It is expected that the economy has returned to growth and will have emerged from the double-dip recession.  Much of the boost to the economy is being credited to the Olympics.  The Bank of England’s next inflation report will be published on 14 November.

Anna Leach, CBI head of economic analysis, remarked, “Looking ahead to November's meeting, we think that the committee is likely to favour further asset purchases. While there have been a few positive signs in recent data, underlying conditions remain relatively flat.

“Meanwhile, uncertainty around the international backdrop is likely to build further through the autumn, keeping confidence in check.”

The UK economy should get another boost at the end of the year with Holiday shopping.  The housing market, which contributes heavily to the health of the overall economy, is expected to show some improvement due to the continuing impact of the Funding for Lending programme.  The programme offers at low interest rates funds for lenders to contribute towards loans.  The programme has helped keep lenders from having to fund loans through the expensive global lending market and that has helped to lower interest rates and keep loans available for both mortgages and remortgages.

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