Pessimism Rules with Few Mortgage Approvals
It’s hard to have an optimistic view of the housing industry when approval numbers are just half of what they have been over the last decade. Only 48,700 mortgage applications were approved in July, according to the Bank of England. This is just a touch over half of what an average month of 93,000 has been over the last 10 years. The opinion is the housing market is either going nowhere or is preparing for the double dip; it just depends who you ask for which answer you will hear. Economists however, are very pessimistic about the British property market.
Andrew Goodwin, senior advisor to the Ernst and Young ITEM Club, remarked about the data of the housing market, saying: "The figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low." "The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased," he added. Economists blame a couple things on the weak market, citing high unemployment levels as well as low household income growth as reasons for the below average performance. Another roadblock to the market moving forward is the stringent lending criteria, in place now at most banks and lending houses. It is a fact interest rates remain low, but these rates are not able to get in the hands of buyers, due to other criteria not being met. One example is the down payment required now. It was 10 to 15 per cent and now it is averaging about 20 to 25 per cent of the selling price. A figure that is hard for most home buyers to swing, especially first timers. The low approvals data for loans is but another feather in an otherwise disappointing cap of the economy of 2010.