Homeowners Playing Odds on When MPC Will Raise Interest Rate in Deciding to Remortgage
Homeowners are rolling the dice on when to grab a remortgage, literally playing a game of odds as to when the MPC will be hiking the interest rate upward. Though three members voted for an increase in last month’s meeting, economists do not believe there will be an increase in March due to such a fragile recovery. May is considered the likely month for an increase and if so, then there are still more months to secure a remortgage based on the now 0.5 per cent standard rate.
In a recent speech Charles Bean, deputy governor of the Bank of England, did not give away any underlying tone that he expected a change in the rate at this week’s meeting. Instead he stated in relation to inflation that the tax increase and public spending cuts should be allowed to play out their influence. Consideration of many is that the economy is still too fragile for an interest rate hike. He stated: "Economists and monetary policymakers have long understood that there is generally no conflict between stabilising inflation and stabilising output when the economy is subject to adverse demand shocks. But that there is a real choice to be made when there are adverse cost shocks: inflation can be stabilised, but only at the cost of volatility in output." Still there are others that believe a rate increase is necessary, and some believe a rate increase is overdue. MPC member Andrew Sentance has for many months voted for a rate increase and had two members join him in the last meeting. He stated recently in a speech: "In my view, the time [to raise rates] is overdue. We should increase them gradually and slowly if we can. But the risk of delaying interest rate rises too long is that this gradual approach may cease to be an option." Homeowners hoping to remortgage are going to be closely watching the results of this week’s MPC meeting. The minutes following a few weeks later will alert to the undertone of the entire meeting and member’s opinions. What occurs will help remortgage hopefuls better decide the odds on when to secure their loan. Even if the rate remains unchanged, analysts do not expect to get by many more months until a hike is seen. At that point the deals of today will be long gone and those wanting what is available now may very well have to walk away from the dice game and remortgage soon.